New Delhi/Beijing – In a major geopolitical development, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to travel to China this week to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit hosted by President Xi Jinping. This marks Modi’s first visit to Beijing since 2018 and the first high-level engagement between the two leaders after the violent border clash in the Galwan Valley, which froze relations between India and China for years.
From Galwan Standoff to Handshakes
The 2020 Galwan Valley conflict left deep scars on bilateral ties, with 20 Indian and 4 Chinese soldiers killed. Since then, troops from both nations remain deployed in tense Himalayan zones. Yet, with recent 10-point agreements on border management and signs of softening rhetoric, Modi and Xi are expected to prioritize economic stability over confrontation.
SCO Summit’s Strategic Weight
The Beijing-hosted summit is projected to be the largest in SCO’s history, with leaders of Russia, Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asian nations in attendance. India’s participation signals a cautious but significant shift in Asian power dynamics, suggesting a slow but deliberate thaw in India-China relations.
Washington Jitters: Trump’s Tariff Gamble
The sudden shift comes against the backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 50% import duty on several Asian exports, including Indian goods. Analysts believe this economic jolt pushed New Delhi to rebalance ties with Beijing. “The warming of India-China ties undermines Washington’s strategy of using India as a counterweight to China,” noted Un Sun, a foreign policy expert.
India’s Balancing Act
While America’s tariff shock may have accelerated outreach, experts insist that strategic autonomy remains India’s guiding principle. “New Delhi wants to maintain workable relations with both the U.S. and China. This is not a pivot, but a recalibration,” said analyst Manoj Kevalramani.
Economic Realities Driving Cooperation
India-China trade has surged to $118 billion in 2024, with New Delhi heavily dependent on Chinese raw materials and components for its industries. This economic interdependence makes cooperation not only strategic but also unavoidable.
Trust Deficit Remains
Despite progress, skepticism lingers. Security expert Tanvi Madan emphasized, “The trust deficit between India and China remains deep. Stability may return, but competition will not disappear.”
Looking Ahead
Analysts agree this is not a reset but a realignment. India is unlikely to distance itself from Washington, but pragmatism dictates engagement with Beijing. As Asia recalibrates in response to U.S. economic aggression, the Modi-Xi handshake in Beijing may symbolize the beginning of a cautious partnership—one defined by competition, compulsion, and cooperation.
also read – U.S. Tariffs Threaten $48 Billion Trade: Can India Shield Itself from the Blow?
